Key takeaways
- Higher rates = longer DOM.
- Buyer pool smaller in tight markets.
- Margins compressed 20–30% vs 2021.
- Discipline matters more than ever.
- Selective markets only.
Core concepts
Rate impact
Buyers qualify for less; demand softens.
Margin compression
Less room for error.
Market selection
Migration-positive metros only.
Step-by-step framework
- 1Stress test buyer demand.
- 2Underwrite to 65–70% rule.
- 3Hold reserves 30% above budget.
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Common mistakes to avoid
- Optimistic ARV in soft markets.
- Ignoring rate trajectory.
Frequently asked questions
Is flipping dead?
No — but discipline is non-negotiable.
Best states 2026?
TX, FL, GA, NC.
Worst?
High-cost coastal.
Margin target?
$30k+ net floor.
Action checklist
- ☐Migration positive market.
- ☐65–70% rule.
- ☐Reserves 30% over.
- ☐Stress test demand.
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