CalculateRealEstateROI

Investing

What's a realistic appreciation expectation?

3–4% per year over 20-year periods nationally. 5–8% in high-growth metros, 0–2% in shrinking metros.

Reviewed by Keiron Brown, Founder & Editor, CalculateRealEstateROI · Educational estimates only — not investment, financial, tax, or legal advice

Direct answer

3–4% per year over 20-year periods nationally. 5–8% in high-growth metros, 0–2% in shrinking metros.

Expanded explanation

Long-term U.S. residential appreciation tracks inflation plus 1–2%. Specific metros vary widely. Do not underwrite to recent peak rates. Build base-case at 3% and bull at 5%.

Examples

  • Phoenix 1990–2024: ~5.2%; Cleveland: ~2.0%.

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