CalculateRealEstateROI

Methodology

Market Cycle Methodology

Our Market Cycle Analyzer assigns every MSA to one of four phases — Expansion, Peak, Contraction, Recovery — using a composite of price growth, rent growth, inventory, population, employment, and migration indicators.

Reviewed by Keiron Brown, Founder & Editor, CalculateRealEstateROI · Educational estimates only — not investment, financial, tax, or legal advice

Phase definitions

Expansion = strong fundamentals + low risk; Peak = strong fundamentals + rising risk; Contraction = weakening fundamentals + elevated risk; Recovery = stabilizing fundamentals + low risk.

Forecast model

We project a 10-year price-index trajectory blending current price/rent growth with a phase-specific drag factor when the risk indicator exceeds 60.

Refresh cadence

City inputs are refreshed quarterly. Forecasts auto-update with the underlying inputs.